Is Democracy facing a Setback Worldwide?

I wrote this essay for the NCH humanities essay competition under the theme of ‘politics and international relations’. Hope you enjoy.

Democracy is a cornerstone of our current civilisation. It fought off competition from fascism and communism in the 20^th century to become the dominant political order worldwide. However, warning signs and potential threats are beginning to emerge. This essay will analyse the reputed best democracies in New Zealand and Scandinavia and the challenged democracies of the USA, India, Brazil and Russia. It will also examine the rise of China as the world’s next superpower and the increasingly powerful technology of Artificial Intelligence (AI) as threats to democracy. It will be argued that worldwide democracy is not facing a ‘setback’ as such, but rather that it is being shaken and tested. It has passed these tests so far, but as serious threats to the current political order emerge more must be done to strengthen democracy’s position as the main world order.

First, we will examine the United States. It is one of the oldest democracies, having been established in 1789, and is also the world’s largest economy by measure of GDP. It spent most of the second half of the 20^th century fighting off communism in the form of the Soviet Union during the Cold War and the country has promoted free-market capitalism and democracy across the world for centuries. However, the US just faced one of its most severe challenges to democracy for years during the 2020 US presidential election. The election was won by Joe Biden who beat Donald Trump the sitting president. When the results came in Mr Trump claimed that he had won the election, citing ‘widespread electoral fraud’. On January 6^th, 2021, the US Capitol building was violently stormed by Trump supporters- who were encouraged by Mr Trump himself. This was a serious test of American democracy, but it stood firm and Biden and VP Kamala Harris were inaugurated on January 21, 2021. However, the issues with American democracy lie deeper than the extreme events seen in this election. The Guardian (1) identifies five main issues: the electoral college system, voter suppression, the senate, judges and redistricting. It says that ‘Combined, they present an existential threat to America’s reputation- and survival- as the oldest constitutional democracy on the planet.’ Under Mr Trump’s cult of personality, issues like race, climate change and the Covid-19 pandemic went ignored or were actually worsened by his premiership. The election of Mr Biden may change America for the better. However, the 2020 election was not a one-off: due to the quirks of the American democratic system and the loss of trust in the classic liberal ideal by American voters the warning signs are starting to appear. American democracy is in serious need of reform and failure to do so will lead to serious issues with worldwide democracy in the 21^st century.

Next, we will look at some of the reputed best democracies in the world. According to the Economist Intelligence Unit (2), the top 5 democracies in the world are Norway, Iceland, Sweden, New Zealand and Finland. Apart from New Zealand, all of the other countries are Scandinavian. What do these countries do so well, and what can major Western states like the UK and the USA learn from their democracies? Firstly, all of the countries use proportional representation as their electoral system. This means that the proportion of votes a party receives will equate to how many seats they receive. Therefore, coalition governments are often formed, and cross-party cooperation is encouraged. Possibly more significantly there are less populist ‘macho’ strongmen at the helm in these democracies- which is an issue for many other countries further down on the Economist’s list. The issues the world faces now, including climate change, the growth of AI and complex international relations require a more collaborative and compromising leadership approach- something these countries do well. Economically, many Scandinavian countries have developed quality welfare systems while keeping the benefits of capitalism. (3) The results are some of the best democracies, civil liberties and political participation levels in the world. The collaborative and sensible ways in which these countries are run as a result of their democratic systems present a sharp contrast to many other Western countries- where electoral quirks give way to fierce bipartisan politics and ‘macho’ strongmen- which is proving to be increasingly unsuitable for the issues facing the developed world in the 21^st century. Countries such as the USA and the UK should consider electoral reform and modernisation to strengthen their democracies because serious threats are emerging.

One of the greatest threats to democracy in the 21^st century is artificial intelligence (AI) and the increasing influences of technology and data on elections worldwide. The Facebook- Cambridge Analytica scandal (4)- where Facebook allowed the data of 87 million users to be harvested for the purposes of political advertising- was a grim warning of the potential threats that AI, data and algorithms could pose to democracy. As Y.N. Harari notes in his book ’21 Lessons for the 21^st Century’, (5) ‘Referendums and elections are about human feelings, not human rationality.’ In the ‘F-CA’ scandal, the electorate’s data was analysed by algorithms and political advertisements were shown to swing voters on Facebook. Cambridge Analytica has been linked with the election campaigns of both Donald Trump and the Brexit campaign. Harari comments that once people’s feelings can be hacked, ‘democratic politics will turn into an emotional puppet show’. This concern is echoed by Sukhayal Niyazov on ‘Towards Data Science’ (6), who says that now, ‘politicians study the electorate’s views and adjust their own accordingly.’ The crux of the issue lies in that AI is gaining the ability to manipulate our thoughts and actions, whilst most of us don’t even know what it is or how it works. We hand over our personal data- our most valuable asset- just to access social media- wholly unaware that these massive companies (Facebook, Twitter, Google) can manipulate or sell our data to third parties and influence our democratic elections and choices. Consequently, AI and data technology is a hugely powerful and significant area which will have an increasing influence on worldwide democracy. As a human race, we should make a better effort to understand it before it gets out of control and begins to interfere with democracy in ways we cannot begin to imagine.

Furthermore, worldwide democracy is threatened by the continued growth of China as a world superpower. Already, the situation with Hong Kong has shown the contempt that China shows democracy, and it is clear that China’s growing power and influence could harm democracy worldwide. China is an authoritarian one-party state and the world’s second largest economy. Through the ‘Made in China 2025’ plan, it wants to become the world’s largest economic power, provide prosperity, be politically stable and to have created a nationwide system of interconnected AI. This means that by 2025, China will use AI to produce goods, control companies and help the central government to control its population. The authoritarian nature of China means the government can test and build AI services with data from 1.3 billion people, and several agencies have been given a government mandate to build relationships with potential European partners. This threat should not be underestimated. As Fabian Westerheide writes on Forbes (7), ‘China is on its way to becoming the first global AI superpower’. Chinese digital technology and 5G networks are making their way into the West. Though much of this was treated with intense suspicion by Donald Trump and subsequent US exports of AI software to China have been restricted. In the previous paragraph, I outlined some of the potential dangers posed by AI. In the hands of an authoritarian state like China, the risks that the technology could pose are enormous. China is and will continue to be a world superpower in the 21^st century, and their ambitions of an ‘AI state’ mean that the actions of China should be closely monitored by Western democracies. If not, the risks to worldwide democracy could be severe.

Lastly, we will look at the state of democracy in some other major countries, including Brazil, Russia and India. Brazil (8) operates a democracy, though it is flawed, and corruption is rife- as seen in ‘Operation Car-Wash’- an ongoing corruption investigation (9). Voting is compulsory there for 18–70-year-olds, which explain why they have some of the highest voter turnout levels in the world. They are led by Jair Bolsonaro, a populist nationalist ‘macho’ strongman. They are 52^nd on the democratic index (2). In Russia (10), Vladimir Putin’s lengthy presidency is being challenged by Alexei Navalny- who has been poisoned and now arrested by the state. There are ‘elections’ every six years but there are limited parties and candidates to choose from as the sitting government often repels opposition- as demonstrated by the situation with Mr. Navalny where Russia has shown contempt for democracy. Corruption is also rife there, as exemplified by a recent video by Mr Navalny showing a mansion allegedly built by Mr Putin with illicit cash. They rank 134^th on the democratic index (2). In India, a parliamentary democracy is operated, and Narendra Modi is Prime Minister. It is 51^st on the democratic index (2) and is described as a ‘flawed democracy’ by the index. However, domestic issues in all three countries following the covid-19 pandemic should prevent any short-term risks to democracy, though the developing situation in Russia should be watched carefully.

In conclusion, democracy is not experiencing a ‘setback’ worldwide as such, though potential threats are beginning to appear, such as the rise of China, AI and the situation in Russia. Democracy is faring well in places such as Scandinavia and New Zealand, whilst in the UK and the USA reforms and improvements are needed. The 21^st century will present unparalleled challenges for people and governments worldwide; if we are going to keep our democracies, then we are going to have to reform them.

Essay competition (now closed): https://www.nchlondon.ac.uk/essay/

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